Summary
Last week’s call worked out only partially as we saw a minor dip though we stayed within my range of no more than 2%.
For this week we’ve got a mixed signal on the board. Due to last Friday’s non-farm payroll numbers futures are in the red. I do expect weakness to continue early in the week. Closing the week we will be flat.
Price Action
[bullish]
- Direction: long term up, intermediate-term up
- Historical ranked volatility: long-term bellow 0.50, intermediate-term between 0.50 and 0.75
- Trend-health: long-term trending environment (TSI >1.65) and intermediate trend conditions are very low and lower than 5 days ago.
- Channel: intermediate channel position very low
- OB/OS: RSI(5)>25 and <50, RSI(10)>25 and <50, intermediate term time stretch in lower quartile.
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Seasonality
[mixed]
Seasonality is bullish for April(K), week 15 of the year is slightly bearish
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Correlation
[bullish]
Correlation (M) among S&P500 members is very low (<0.25) . Short-term we see a decrease in correlation (RSI2<25).
Read more about my correlation related research here.
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Breadth
[bullish]
Market Breadth (N) for top performers is at high absolute levels.
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Sectors
[bearish]
Sector setup (O) is bearish. The sector leaders are XLI (Industrials) and XLF (Financials).
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Bonds
[positive]
RISK ON for the bond market (P). Generally this is positive for the stock market, especially with a combined setup (BONDS and DIRECTION).
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